Friday, 31 August 2012

Jackson Hole - Snake or honey-pot..?

In Africa we'd council you not to poke your arm into a crevasse or tree-cavity lest you disturb the snake that lives therein and unless you think you can dance at the end of a screwdriver jammed vigorously into the electrical box of life, you might not enjoy the experience if you do! 

Most technical analysts, extrapolating from last year's events in and around this time, are calling for a decline of up to 6% in the near-term on most major indices. Quite 'unlike' our own traditional African doctors who divine the future from old bits of tin and a lion bone or two, these paragons of advanced investment science do the same from past performance and behind stochastics & a bollinger band or two. In Africa we say 'Siyavuma' in response to the diviner behind the bones which means 'we agree'. Whether you chant siyavuma or choose to remain silent in response to the technicals is not important. The point is the analysis is broadly similar in consensus and in the public domain. I know it, other traders know it and so should you. 

Prophesied market eventualities come to pass only when cash flow drives the price. Today's negative market prophesy needs a macro trigger to ebb the equity-flow. Given that most of us know what the prophesy claims, it is by definition self-fulfilling and who wants to be left behind the curve, siyavuma or not! Now, if Ben Shalom Bernanke doesn't stir the stimulus pot later today at Jackson Hole, you might find a snake at the end of your arm for the prophesy is clear; equity is dear..