Showing posts with label leadership. Show all posts
Showing posts with label leadership. Show all posts

Wednesday, 19 September 2012

Romney & Obama - a dearth of riches

In the US it's another bout of Let's get ready to ramble* (* with apologies to Michael Buffer) and let's agree, to date at least, not much has been forth-coming from either Presidential-hopeful; the incumbent or the challenger..US voters, ordinary men and women in the main, are faced with a damned if you do, damned if you don't leadership conundrum.

Yes it's easy, as an outsider, to point fingers. There are, of course, many constraints, mostly real, some imagined. Even so, there are too many inherent failures on both sides of the political-farce to lend much hope for a US economic revival in either the short or medium -term. The combination of party ineptitude and the untidy, less-than-witty presentations of their chosen presidential - spokesmen doesn't fill many with much enthusiasm and therein lies the rub.

Perhaps less articulate than he's given credit for, most market-participants grudgingly agree, in broad terms perhaps, with Marc Faber's assertion that the Fed's policy of printing money will 'destroy the world'. The FED therefore, by definition, cannot lend-lead the US economy out of decline. I say lead because that's whats needed here. Leadership is seemingly a global commodity in short supply... Sound political leadership; effective government; restraint on political-pandering and a good deal of strategic forethought is the only hope for the millions of Americans who find themselves either unemployed or under-employed.

Half-way around the world, in South Africa, we face a similar situation, only less dynamic. Leadership, as a concept, is a premise long since lost. Entitlement, corporate ineptitude in the face of crisis and political philandering is commonplace, if not entrenched. It's symptomatic of self-absorbed-largesse, the excesses of the elite and like everything else and without belaboring the point, usually at the expense of the ordinary citizen.














Thursday, 10 November 2011

Europe awake!

For the attention and consideration of Europe's leaders

What has happened to Europe?

You've told us that the EU stands as a select body of nations believing in social and economic freedom. Circumstances have proved that the interests of individual nations are not identical. At the same time the separate identities have, until now, been seen as a strength rather than weakness. With the region's experience and expertise now is not the time to hide your heads in the sand....

New problems are looming.. Live not under any illusions. You cannot opt out of the world!

Your capacity to play a constructive role in world affairs is related to economic strength. If you hope to guarantee your way of life, the question you must ask yourselves is whether the present leadership is fulfilling their duty. The battles are being fought in your territory, not ours.

This is the moment - a moment when your decisions will determine the life or death of your kind of society; - and the future of your children.*





* With apologies to Margaret Thatcher whose words roused the nation's collective spirit. Will Chancellor Merkel be hailed as Europe's new Iron Lady? 


Monday, 7 November 2011

Italy's next..

Italy is next? What does that mean, exactly?

The Italian problem-  One:   Debt to GDP ratio - 119%.
                               Two:   0 (zero) political credibility.

How's that any different from Greece? It isn't.

So what happens now? Predictably, the scenario generates two basic market reactions. One; bond yields rise, alarmingly. For the technically inclined Italian bonds have broken the crucial post-euro-era highs of 6.5% .... As an exercise and confirmation of the severity of the situation, if you like, consider the rapidly diverging European bond spreads (comparative yields - usually against the German bund) and Two; as Italian bond yields rise the cost of credit rises commensurately, which makes it more expensive for Italy to raise money to service EXISTING debt. As the debt burden rises on comparatively more expensive credit, Italy's ability to go-to-market cost effectively, so to speak, diminishes and so on and so on..

What's done is done. Global debt levels are excessive. That's old news. So why has the market singled out Italy rather than France which is equally indebted? In a nutshell, the market has little faith in Italy's ability to get-its-house-in-order and service its debt-burden. It's a global vote of no confidence in Italy's leadership. 

The EU is structurally-imperiled, once again, with an economic problem not insurmountable given the diversity of the Italian economy, but rather on Berlusconi's lack of application and or ability to draw on the collective energies of the ordinary Italian to address the issue, in time and before conditions deteriorate.

Unless the EU addresses the structural concept of competent sovereign leadership, which is complex and fraught with danger, it's just more of the same..