Tuesday 30 August 2011

It's the chicken; no the egg.... perhaps the chicken...

So what came first? The economy or the market? Take the financial crisis as a point of departure. Until Lehman all was well with the world - then surprise, then panic; then global stock-markets collapsed, confidence withered, interbank lending 'jammed' and 'For sales' signs mushroomed around the world. Today, some two years later, the global economy teeters on the brink.. Markets roar ahead, then falter, then recover, then falter..

So who came first? Greenspan or Bernanke? Over-exuberance had Alan holding rates too low. Printing presses roared around the clock. 'Treasonous' Bernanke's QE1, 2, 2 & a half, 3 and 4 ad infinitum, has Stiglitz in a bubble.

S&P cuts the States, admits the maths was poor. "Our downgrade's good.." but senior S&P executives fall on their swords and are asked to leave. US treasuries go viral on inflow demand..?

Democrats or Republicans? Bush slashed taxes, Barack's spent too much. Revenue suffered first; expenses are now too high.. Companies slash jobs and cut spending. Politicians urge them the other way. 'Spend more, hire more and win the future..' The world's awash with idle capital and idle skill...

They do or they don't need funding? "We DO NOT need external help..." - Bank of America [BAC] sells preferred stock and a 10 yr open call on wads of deep in-the-money discounted stock to clever Warren. Costs BAC 6% to fund.. That's not cheap. You might even say that's deceptively desperate..

"I never had sexual relations with that woman..." Enough said!



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