Thursday 24 November 2011

Turkeys give thanks the day after Thanksgiving*...

Turkey-gobblers caught doing the futterwacken the day after Thanksgiving usually end up trussed and golden-brown just a few weeks later on the Christmas-table.. It's an amusing silly-season reminder that surviving an anticipated negative event doesn't necessarily mean that all is well indefinitely!

The same applies in the global markets. Very few market-professionals (if any) can claim that the last six months have been smooth-sailing. It's been a perfect storm of unanticipated economic shock and political ineptitude. Worse still, the confusion has been compounded in the real world by the exposure of the structural inefficiencies in the banking-model considered sacrosanct and against which none of us could draw on much experience. Even so, if you're reading this you've probably survived the toughest markets in living memory but dancing the victory-fandango is more than likely a dance-too-soon.. The weak global economic climate, structural headwinds, accelerated global deleveraging and high levels of debt prevalent in September which led to the last asset-price blow are still synonymous today however your interpretation.

In a two-sided financial tale and on a more positive note there are, as we speak, trillions of disenchanted dollars in cash or cash-equivalents earning negative real returns.... That's a status quo that will NOT endure indefinitely.



*Wishing our US friends a Happy Thanksgiving!














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